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大行評級|交銀國際:上調嗶哩嗶哩目標價至155港元 《三謀》拉動遊戲收入加速增長

交銀國際發表報吿,微調嗶哩嗶哩第二季收入預測1%至61億元,按年增16%,主要因新遊超預期。毛利率預計按年和按季分別擴大6和1個百分點至29%,主要因規模效應及廣吿收入佔比提升。考慮新遊投放加大,維持經調整淨虧損3.3億元預期,較去年同期和上季延續收窄趨勢。報吿指,《三謀》表現亮眼,上調全年遊戲收入預期。《三謀》上線以來保持暢銷榜前十排名,根據點點數據,最高日流水250萬美元,最低日流水50萬美元。基於九個月流水攤銷,上調2024和2025年遊戲收入預測至54和67億元,對應按年增速為34%和23%,預計《三謀》貢獻遊戲收入比例為26%和43% 。

基於遊戲收入調整,該行上調2024和2025年總收入預測各5%和8%,考慮營銷投入加大部分抵消收入增量,維持第3季扭虧為盈預期,並小幅上調2025年淨利潤預期。該行分別上調其美股及H股目標價至20美元和155港元,原為17美元和132港元。該行認為8月下賽季開啟,日流水或將重回高位,短期新遊投放主要為吸引/留存用户,為長線營運奠定基礎,投放回歸常態化後新遊將逐步釋放利潤貢獻。

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