中信證券:預計短期A股仍將處於磨底狀態 未來需靜待價格信號的企穩回升
中信證券研報認為,7月中旬密集披露的中報預吿顯示A股盈利週期仍處於磨底狀態,預吿盈利較好的企業集中在兩個方向,一是部分價格有支撐的上游資源品,例如有色、電力,二是出口導向、供給格局較好的製造業,典型代表有電子、汽車;中報預吿較差的企業集中在地產鏈和競爭加劇的製造業。展望未來,預計內需消費、供需格局較好的製造業、科技、醫藥會成為結構亮點,但A股整體盈利仍處於新舊動能轉換的過程,工業正逐漸替代金融地產成為新的利潤增量來源,這也導致A股盈利週期和PPI週期高度一致,且短期財報指標的波動性明顯降低。從社融指標對PMI、PPI的前瞻指引以及Wind一致預測淨利潤的變化趨勢來看,預計短期A股仍將處於磨底狀態,未來需靜待價格信號的企穩回升。
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