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中信證券:下半年A股市場將迎來年度級別上升行情的起點 迎接大拐點

中信證券研報認為,宏觀總量運行雖仍有壓力,但預計政策會持續聚焦新動能,帶來其全面發力,經濟結構中的亮點將更加凸顯。預計工業景氣將延續較快復甦,投資保持“製造業>基建>房地產”的格局,消費結構上呈現服務消費仍有韌性的特徵,出口在補庫週期和“一帶一路”經濟體的帶動下趨勢性回温。預計全年GDP有望完成5%的增長目標。過去3年壓制A股表現的經濟動能轉換、資本市場生態、中美戰略博弈這三大敍事都將迎來重大拐點,隨着政策、價格、外部三類信號逐步驗證,下半年A股市場將迎來年度級別上升行情的起點,政策起效與盈利質量改善是主驅動,建議把握戰略窗口迎接大拐點,配置重心從紅利低波逐步轉向績優成長。

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