大行評級|海通國際:港股互聯網龍頭公司盈利改善 短期調整後有望修復
海通國際發表報吿指,二十屆三中全會將於7月15日至18日召開,主題為研究進一步全面深入改革、推進中國式現代化問題。投資方向來看,該行指,港股互聯網龍頭公司盈利改善,短期調整後有望修復;房地產方面,5月17日重磅政策基本到位,地產成交按月也略有提升,該行認為三中全會將為房地產方向的高層決策做一個收尾,後續更多靠推動地方政府落實為主。5月17日之後,各地已紛紛出台去庫存措施,例如城投收儲、政府收儲、以舊換新、降低首付比例和房貸利率下限等,多措並舉消化存量房產。港股和A股的房地產指數幾乎跌回原點,預計後續有所修復。此外,財税改革、電力改革和城鄉融合發展也值得關注。
海通國際指,一般熊市完結後的第一波升幅結束後會出現一個月左右的急跌,急跌後大概率出現反彈;目前第一波回調基本到位,市場對利好政策的期待或令市場提前開始交易三中全會預期,進入B浪反彈。當前財政政策加碼,超長期特別國債開始佈局,房地產收儲也逐步落地利於股市企穩,但該行認為短期的地方政府化債政策還需要進一步的政策精準扶持;三中全會的大政策的效果仍需時間檢驗;同時下半年還有美國大選的消息擾動。
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