中國中免AH股齊飆,旅遊ETF升超2%
今日港A股消費板塊強勢走高,尤其是免税板塊。王府井、南寧百貨升停中國中免A股升升停,中國中免H股升超10%。

ETF方面,旅遊ETF霸屏升幅榜,富國基金旅遊ETF、華夏基金旅遊ETF上午分別收升2.69%和2.51%。

消息面上,新一輪財税體制改革臨近,其中消費税是備受關注的一環。市場普遍認為擴大徵收範圍、後移徵收環節、穩步下劃地方是未來消費税改革的三大看點,奢侈品、高檔服務或率先試點。
目前中國的消費税收入幾乎全部歸中央政府所有,地方政府這部分的分成非常少。隨着中國經濟進入新舊動能交替的階段,外循環不斷遭遇逆全球化的壓力,內循環是未來經濟發展的重要抓手,消費税這塊的改革尤為重要。
國泰君安團隊認為,消費税的改革方向已經是“明牌”,主要是擴大徵税範圍,以及後移徵税環節並逐步下劃給地方,並在此過程中伴隨税率的相應調整。從擴大徵税範圍來看,預計將從奢侈品、有害健康消費品、損害環境消費品三個角度出發;從徵税環節後移來看,客觀上可能增加不超過2000億税負彌補地方財力,更重要的積極意義在於建立了地方通過減少一些消費場景制約來鼓勵消費的激勵機制。
説白了,如果消費税改革往地方政府傾斜,那麼地方政府就有動力去創造更好的配套服務,來鼓勵消費,吸引消費。
當然很關鍵的一個環節是A股近期成交清淡,成交額徘徊在6000億關口上震盪,資金風險偏好低到極致,這時候的資金自然更願意交易處於估值低位且有消息利好刺激的板塊。免税板塊今年跌幅逼近15%。

毋庸置疑,國內的需求仍有待恢復。從近一年的消費數據來看,旅遊一直處於需求旺盛的階段,但客單價仍有提升空間。剛剛過去的端午節假期,全國國內旅遊出遊人次和國內遊客的出遊總花費繼續保持了比較快的增長。
日前,攜程集團發佈《2024暑期旅遊市場預測報吿》。報吿顯示,今年暑期國內旅遊市場保持穩步增長,酒店、機票搜索熱度均同比上升20%以上。出入境旅遊受政策紅利影響,增長迅猛,赴歐洲、拉丁美洲等部分國家旅遊訂單增長八成以上。
目前A股的旅遊ETF和消費相關的ETF情況如下表所示,消費主題ETF跟蹤的指數有消費龍頭、CS消費50、800消費、恒生消費和港股通消費CNY等。旅遊ETF跟蹤的指數是中證旅遊。

從旅遊ETF的最新規模來看,富國基金旅遊ETF最新規模為29.74億元,華夏基金旅遊ETF的規模為8.89億元。

中證指數官網顯示,中證旅遊主題指數選取不超過50家業務涉及旅遊住宿、旅遊遊覽、旅遊購物、旅遊娛樂、旅遊綜合服務、旅遊出行、旅遊餐飲、旅遊地產開發等旅遊產業鏈的上市公司證券作為指數樣本,以反映旅遊主題上市公司證券的整體表現。
從前十大成分股來看,第一大權重股就是中國中免,最新佔比為13.87%,錦江酒店、上海機場、首旅酒店和中國東航等航空股、酒店股。

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