“壽險業務復甦+中期息”雙重催化!保險股集體走強,中國平安升超5%,中國人壽升超4%
港A市場保險股集體走強,其中,港股市場新華保險升超7%,中國平安升超5%,中國人壽升超4%;A股市場新華保險升超3%,中國平安升近3%,中國人壽升近2%。東海證券近日發佈金融行業週報稱,關注高基數效應下壽險業務增速,陸續落實中期分紅推動板塊吸引力提升。1)金融監管總局近日公佈保險行業5月數據,人身險、財產險2024年前5月保費累計增速分別為12.1%和3.0%,其中5月單月同比增速分別為12.8%和3.4%,增速環比分別提升3.1pp和1.6pp。其中尤其需注意的是,受預定利率下調催化,壽險業務需求旺盛,5月單月同比增速達15.6%,不過由於去年同期存在高基數壓力,對6-7月業務增速持謹慎態度,但看好利差損風險緩釋後的價值提升。2)中國財險、中國人保、中國人壽近日陸續宣佈擬實施中期分紅,結合早前宣佈擬中期分紅的新華保險,和已經連續多年中期分紅的中國平安,絕大多數上市險企已落實“國九條”號召,與廣大投資者及時分享公司發展紅利,增強獲得感。此外,高股息高分紅的經營特徵也更加契合長期資金的配置需求,保險板塊作為藍籌也有望更受青睞,情緒上行推動資產端β屬性持續激活。另外,摩根大通近日也表示,快於預期的壽險業務復甦、強化的資本管理政策及產品利潤率復甦,將抵消債息下跌的潛在風險,料內險股派中期息成短期催化劑。該行給予中國平安A股及H股及國壽H股“增持”評級,為內險股中首選。該行估計在港上市內險股今年平均股息率達6.4%。
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