大行評級|摩根大通:工行股東大會啟示積極 淨息差可能會超過之前指引
摩根大通發表報吿指,過去幾天有七家內銀召開股東大會,其中招行、工行和民行公佈了會議紀要。該行認為,由於淨利息收益率趨於穩定,資產質量穩定,因此對整個行業解讀正面。摩通指,工行股東大會的啟示最為積極,因為管理層表示淨息差可能會超過之前指引,貸款增長將高於同業,而信用卡貸款的不良貸款形成率正在下降,房地產開發商貸款LTV(貸款價值比)僅為42%,地方政府債務減免計劃使地方政府融資擔保貸款的回報率提高,這些因素都使資產質量得到改善。報吿指,招行股東大會的啟示較為中性,因為股東大會上沒有新的信息或指導。民行股東大會的啟示負面,因為管理層對淨息差持謹慎態度,資產質量不太可能從目前的水平大幅提升。
摩通認為,銀行淨息差趨穩,但各間銀行趨勢不同。如果第三季度再下調一次LPR,預計2024財年的淨息差將比首季淨息差低單位數基點。上述三家銀行的評論表明,工行的淨息差收窄幅度可能最低,而民行淨息差收窄幅度可能最高。該行認為民行將面臨更大的壓力,因為中小企業貸款需求不足,而民行正試圖優化資產負債表組合。
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