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大行評級|麥格理:下調中通快遞目標價至21.2美元 下調今明兩年盈測
格隆匯 06-27 11:57
麥格理髮表報吿,下調中通快遞今明兩年盈利預測2%及4%,反映收入正在受壓,美股目標價由25.8美元降至21.2美元,投資評級由“跑贏大市”降至“中性”。該行指,內地消費降級趨勢持續,導致頻繁推廣及商户折扣,有關壓力將轉嫁至派遞公司,因商户及電商平台會推動更具成本效益的派遞方案。該行亦指,第三方物流價格競爭仍極為劇烈,行業平均運費在去年跌4%之後,今年已按年累跌12%。縱使中通快遞近期改變策略,由重增長轉向重盈利,但預期中期將導致更大的市佔損失,損害增長前景。該行料中通快遞第二季及全年包裹量按年增加11%及13%,為市場預期下限,意味市佔率按年跌1.2個百分點。該行認為中通快遞更審慎的成本管控及優勝的服務質素可確保盈利率穩定,亦預期單位成本維持改善,推動單位毛利按年升8%,並預期2024年經調整溢利按年升19 %至107億元。
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