大行評級|大摩:網易《夢幻西遊》系統調整後影響負面 維持“與大市同步”評級
摩根士丹利指,從訪問資深玩家(逾20年經驗)的渠道調查發現,網易上月21日對《夢幻西遊》電腦版進行系統調整,令遊戲陷入負面螺旋,導致其虛擬貨幣貶值。報吿將虛擬貨幣貶值,歸咎於閉鎖系統以限制高價值遊戲項目交易,令遊戲內市場流動性減少,導致不少工作室及商户退出遊戲,進一步損害忠實玩家情緒。基於顯著部分玩家從遊戲賺取收入,虛擬貨幣價值反映遊戲生態系統的健康狀況。有關調整導致所有4類收入下滑,包括《夢幻西遊》口袋版關閉減少項目供應及銷售;遊戲內市場佣金入受影響;遊戲時間卡消費減少;以及遊戲內服飾的交易。基於有限的追蹤數據,該行不預期市場共識預測反映事件,直至第二季業績在8月公佈為止。該行目前假設該股今年盈利按年持平,目前13.5倍市盈率不夠吸引,維持“與大市同步”評級,ADR目標價為100美元。
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