研報掘金|華泰證券:續看好內房板塊估值修 看好中海外、越秀地產、龍湖及潤地等
華泰證券發表報吿指出,今年以來房地產量價延續下行態勢。過去兩年行業面臨的一大挑戰是房價的調整,為改善購房預期,該行認為優化居民現金流是必要手段,因此利率市場化具有重大意義。內地房貸利率或仍有下行空間,隨着利率的持續調整,將有助於優化居民購房現金流,從而推動行業量價築底企穩。重點關注在核心城市擁有更多資源和改善性產品能力的穩健房企,以及業績具備韌性、現金流穩健且派息慷慨的物管公司。
今年首季板塊持倉進一步降低,但這也為4月底以來政策驅動下的估值修復積蓄勢能。該行繼續看好地產板塊估值修復,主要因為政治局會議“消化存量”的提法、“517”地產政策組合拳以及突破歷史新低的房貸利率和首付比例,使得該行對本輪政策的決心和力度報以樂觀態度。重點推薦A股開發商招商蛇口、建發股份;港股開發商中國海外發展、越秀地產、龍湖集團、建發國際集團、華潤置地;物管公司保利物業、 華潤萬象生活、招商積餘、萬物雲與濱江服務。
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