研報掘金|招商證券:食品飲料產業首選華潤啤酒、統一及康師傅
招商證券發表研報指,今年第二季以來飲料行業部分原料成本出現波動,當中棕櫚油價格及鋁價平均按年上升8.6%和8.4%,而瓦楞紙、原奶、PET塑料及玻璃指數則分別按年下降11.9%、12.1%、1.4%和10%,鋁價年內已累升超過10%,達到過去兩年高位,主因相信是全球第二大礦業公司力拓的供應受限。考慮到力拓僅預期今年下半年採礦量可恢復至正常水平,招商證券預測鋁價很可能至少要再維持一個月的高位,不過由於啤酒公司通常會訂立固定價格合同,因此估計鋁現貨價格短期上升,不會對啤酒公司毛利率帶來影響,行業首選為華潤啤酒、統一及康師傅。目前該行預測百威亞太2024財年毛利率將按年提升0.3個百分點至50.7%,目標價13.1港元,評級“增持”;而潤啤預期可增長1個百分點至42.4%,預計喜力品牌市場份額可望提升,目標價45.4港元,評級亦為“增持”。鑑於毛利率增長可能好於預期,該行維持對康師傅及統一的“增持”評級,目標價分別為10.3港元及8.6港元。至於乳業股,該行預期在銷售結構影響下,蒙牛毛利率將持平,維持“中性”評級。
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