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研報掘金丨長江證券:維持中國中鐵“買入”評級 關注國企改革推進與公司資源業務價值重估

長江證券研報指出,中國中鐵(601390.SH)Q1收入波動,使得業績同比有所下滑。關注國企改革持續推進與公司資源業務價值重估。全年看,國企改革加速落地+基建需求具備韌性。政策層面看,2024年是國企改革深化提升行動關鍵年、承上啟下攻堅年,市值管理考核有望近期逐步落地,後續進一步的改革措施或將逐步推出。基本面層面看,Q2專項債發行有望加速,疊加後續萬億特別國債加持,全年基建需求具備韌性。公司自身資源業務方面,當前在境內外全資、控股或參股投資建成5座現代化礦山,分別為黑龍江鹿鳴鉬礦,剛果(金)綠紗銅鈷礦、MKM銅鈷礦、華剛SICOMINE銅鈷礦以及蒙古烏蘭鉛鋅礦。2023年公司礦產資源的開發、銷售總體保持平穩。展望2024年預計基建穩增長仍將貢獻訂單增量,推動公司繼續穩健增長,資源業務也有望提供估值彈性。預計公司2024-2026年歸母淨利潤為373.37、407.75、445.69億元,對應PE 估值為4.36、3.99、3.65倍,維持“買入”評級。

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