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大行評級|瑞銀:香港撤辣後物業交投逐漸放緩 估計今年住宅樓價下跌約5%
瑞銀髮表報吿指,自2月28日香港樓市撤辣後,3月份住宅新盤銷售4,100夥,相當於去年全年銷售約40%,但4月初至15日,銷售已放緩至1,015夥。以日均交易量計,由3月份133夥減少至4月的68夥,但仍然高於1月至2月的8夥至13夥。每週二手成交量亦放緩,該行維持原先預測,估計今年住宅樓價下跌約5%,主要因為庫存仍高,高利率或維持較長時間,以及宏觀經濟疲弱。以目前銷售進度,瑞銀估計全年住宅新盤銷售約1.7萬至1.8萬夥,即需以34至36個月消耗全部庫存,仍高於該行估計樓價回穩的庫存水平30個月,由於市場估計高利率環境維持較長時間,相信發展商繼續視銷量優先於售價,以加快現金回籠。在該行覆蓋的相關股份中,長實由年初至4月中,香港合約銷售107億港元,屬最高水平,其次是恒地及嘉裏建設。在股份方面,偏好信置的淨現金水平,亦偏好恒地,因為北部都會區農地轉換加快。
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