中東局勢緩和!“避險”資產驚現跳水,金價急挫25美元
隨着中東地緣政治緊張局勢緩解、避險需求減少,金價週一從接近高點回落,同時隨着重大供應中斷的可能性減弱,原油價格下跌。
週一亞洲交易時段,現貨黃金跳空低開,最低跌至2361.98美元/盎司,日內重挫逾25美元。白銀也遭到拋售,現貨白銀價格日內重挫2.47%,報27.962美元/盎司。

美、布兩油齊跌,WTI原油期貨下跌63美分,跌幅0.77%,至每桶81.59美元;布倫特原油期貨下跌66美分,跌幅0.76%,至每桶86.63美元。

A股市場,油氣、貴金屬等資源股全線走低,板塊重挫逾5%。

以色列與伊朗都淡化衝突
伊朗週五表示,在以色列無人機在其境內發動明顯襲擊後,伊朗沒有計劃進行報復,而幾天前伊朗導彈和無人機對以色列發動了史無前例的襲擊。
據報道,歐洲外交關係委員會中東和北非項目主任朱利安·巴恩斯·達西表示,以色列對伊朗的襲擊是有限的,以展示對伊朗襲擊的一些反應。
他還稱,伊朗迅速做出的“剋制反應”表明,雙方特別是伊朗,在經歷數週的緊張局勢後希望緩和局勢。
達西表示,“雙方當下似乎都處於尋求阻止局勢升級的狀態”。他補充道:“目前,雙方都不想爆發直接戰爭。”
但他警吿説,更廣泛的地區衝突仍在持續,而且“比以往任何時候都更加激烈”。
黃金、石油後市預期如何?
野村證券策略師Kazuo Kamitani表示:“以色列和伊朗似乎都不希望中東危機升級……而且雙方隨後的打擊看起來都不會到來,投資者的擔憂有所緩解。”
分析師指出,圍繞以色列與伊朗的緊張局勢有所降温,這令避險情緒出現緩和,從而對金價構成打壓。
在中東局勢以外,交易員正關注美國經濟數據。
美國定於週五公佈的個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數預計將顯示,3月PCE物價指數同比增幅將從2月份的2.5%升至2.6%。這將支持美聯儲政策制定者推遲降息的理由,這種情況通常會令黃金承壓,因為黃金不支付利息。
金瑞期貨研究所副所長龔鳴指出,從目前來看,無論是黃金還是白銀在本輪上升幅度已經較為陡峭。從驅動因素來説,此前的避險情緒、流動性寬鬆、政策寬鬆預期等利好因素計價已經較為充分。短期內來看,地緣緊張局勢是否繼續升級存在不確定性。美聯儲隔夜逆回購進一步回落空間有限,流動性寬鬆難持續,且在美國通脹黏性下,美聯儲已經有轉向鷹派的跡象。此外,參考美債收益率定價體系,當前貴金屬價格偏離明顯,建議投資者理性投資,不要盲目追高。
對於石油,野村證券的 Kamitani 表示:“從表面上看,油價的上升趨勢可能已經結束,但從技術水平來看,在 WTI 跌破80美元之前,上升趨勢仍然存在。”
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