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大行齊唱好大宗商品 高盛料減息潮下銅、黃金及原油回報最佳
阿思達克 03-25 12:57
高盛發表報告,指在歐美央行今年啟動減息預期下,將支持工業及消費者需求,大宗商品價格有望上升,與麥格理及凱雷集團看法一致。 該行稱,隨著借貸成本下降、製造業復甦、地緣政治風險持續,投資原材料今年回報有望達15%。該行料銅、鋁、金及石油產品價格上升,不過籲投資者審慎選擇,因升勢料不具普遍性。 今年首季主要大宗商品溫和上升,原油走高,金價創新高,銅價突破每噸9,000美元。隨著通脹放緩,歐美央行已暗示將減息。而中國亦加大政策力度支持經濟復甦。 報告提及,留意到在非衰退情境下美國減息,將會推升商品價格,當中金屬所受刺激最大(特別是銅及黃金),其次是原油。重要的是,對原材料價格的正面影響將隨時間增加,因寬鬆金融環境帶來的增長傳導。 高盛對今年底銅價預測為每噸1萬美元,鋁每噸2,600美元,金價料見每安士2,300美元。高盛對大宗商品的審慎樂觀看法與其他市場分析一致。麥格理本月較早時間指,商品進入了新一波上升周期,受惠供應收緊及全球經濟上行驅動。而前高盛高層、現任凱雷集團的Jeff Currie亦看好商品價格。此外,摩根大通亦提出金價具上行空間。
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