中銀香港:美聯儲議息方向對資產市場有正面影響
美聯儲一如預期公布維持利率不變,但調高了今年的個人消費支出價格指數年率化升幅預測至2.6%。中銀香港私人銀行副總經理陳衛全認為,今次議息有兩大重點值得關注,第一是當局繼去年12月議息後季度性更新利率點陣圖,最新顯示今年底聯邦基金利率中位數依然為4.6%,與上次一致,亦即反映預計到2024年底仍然可能減息0.75%;至於到2025年底則再減0.75%,較上次預測減1%為少。第二是當局開始討論減慢量化緊縮的步伐,雖然今次議息未結論或詳細時間表,但市場估計未來議息會議將有更多細節公布。
陳氏指出今次議息結果雖未有太大轉變,但依然顯示出美聯儲對利率見頂的大方向不變,除了稍為調高通脹預測外,將會更謹慎審視經濟數據走向。另一方面,如果當局開始研究減慢量化緊縮的步伐,代表其開始關注市場流動性的變化,特別是在美國隔夜逆回購總量已經從過去兩年高位下降不少之後。總體而言,今次議息方向對資產市場有正面影響。
陳氏預期目前利率期貨市場反映幾個主要央行,包括歐洲中央銀行及英倫銀行皆可能在今年6月份開始減息,配合最近日本央行結束負利率又同時表示將繼續維持較寬鬆貨幣政策的形勢下,全球風險資產目前仍然處於較有利情況。
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