《大行報告》中金:內地信貸需求仍有待恢復 推薦關注折讓較高的內銀H股
中金發表報告指,人民銀行發布2月金融數據。整體而言,1月信貸、社融受到春節因素以及去年同期信貸投放節奏的影響增長總體明顯放緩,合併前兩個月、並考慮去年今年投放節奏的差異,信貸波動有所平滑。但從信貸需求來看,居民購房、房地產投資、民間投資等領域的需求總體仍有待恢復,後續關注房地產政策變化、三大工程和基建投資等領域對需求的拉動。
中金認為目前銀行投資高股息仍是主線,推薦關注H股折價較高的國有大行,例如建行(00939.HK),中行(03988.HK)等,以及資產質量存在改善預期的渝農商行(601077.SH)、民生銀行(01988.HK)(600016.SH)等,等待經濟基本面信號更加明確後寧波(002142.SZ)、招行(03968.HK)(600036.SH)等優質銀行更具彈性。
報告提到,2月新增貸款1.5萬億元人民幣,按年少增3,600億元人民幣,略低於該行預期的1.6萬億元人民幣。從結構上看,居民貸款按年少增7,988億元人民幣,是主要的拖累,其中居民短期貸款少增6,086億元人民幣,居民中長期貸款少增1,901億元人民幣,均受到春節因素影響;如果合併前兩個月,居民貸款按年少增759億元,略少於去年同期。
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