《大行報告》瑞銀降江銅(00358.HK)目標價至13.6元 升銅價預測
瑞銀將江西銅業(00358.HK)的目標價從14元下調至13.6元,維持「中性」的評級。
瑞銀預計,由於供應大減抵銷了全球銅需求增長放緩的影響,2024年全球銅市場將出現超過30萬噸的逆差。然而,如果巴拿馬銅礦(Cobre Panama)重新開工時間較預期早,且行業其他部分皆順利運行,供應增長或會超過5%,可能使市場重新出現供應過剩。不過,現時銅礦項目正在收縮,維持產出量似乎較過去困難。
瑞銀認為,礦商和市場對供應增長的預期過於樂觀,預期在2025年礦產供應反彈超過5%的可能性低,若市場在2024年下半年出現逆差,供應緊張狀態可能持續較長時間。基於這些分析,瑞銀提高了2025年和2026年的銅價預測,分別至每磅4.50美元(約每噸9,900美元)和4.75美元(約每噸10,500美元)。
由於銅精礦短缺,處理成本(TC)從去年的每噸90美元降至目前的15美元。江西銅業可能已經通過長期合約以每噸80美元的價格確保了其大部分冶煉/精煉業務。瑞銀將其對江西銅業從2025年起的處理成本預測下調至每噸65美元。
考慮到巴拿馬銅礦的暫停的不確定性,以及處理成本的急劇下降,瑞銀決定較微下調江西銅的目標價。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.