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《大行報告》摩通料內銀上季收入增長勝預期 偏好招行(03968.HK)及四大內銀
摩根大通發表報告指,內銀將於3月14日開始公布業績,預計各間銀行呈不同利潤增長趨勢,市場將重點關注今年前景多於去年第四季業績表現。進入業績期後,該行更偏好招行(03968.HK)及四大內銀,因四大內銀盈利能見度更高。 該行指,國家金融監督管理總局數據顯示,去年第四季淨息差收縮10個基點,銀保手續費率下調,因此市場對收入增長的預期較低。但各銀行尤其是招行、建行(00939.HK)和交行(03328.HK),可能會從低基數的交易收入中受惠,預計第四季收入按年增長將略高於第三季。 摩通預計,內銀去年第四季資產質量保持穩定,國家金融監督管理總局數據顯示,去年第四季銀行不良貸款率平均按季下降2個基點,不良貸款覆蓋率略有下降趨勢,但仍高於200%,因此撥備管理是銀行利潤增長的關鍵影響因素。 報告亦提到,基於獲利能見度提高,該行建議由現在至3月底可買入招行及四大國有銀行。惟看淡興業銀行、浦發銀行和平安銀行等股份制銀行,因預計這些銀行第四季利潤收縮。
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