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大新:內地首兩個月出口增速快於預期反映外圍需求有改善跡象
阿思達克 03-08 09:27
大新金融集團首席經濟及策略師溫嘉煒表示,內地2024年頭兩個月外貿表現顯著改善,出口按年增長7.1%,較12月的增幅擴大4.8個百分點,遠好過市場預期的1.9%。期內出口至美國、東盟及香港均由跌轉升,分別按年增加5%、6%及16.4%;出口往歐盟跌幅進一步收窄0.6個百分點至1.3%。整體進口亦進一步改善,按年增長3.5%,高於市場預期的2%;貿易順差擴大499億至1,252億美元,多過市場預期的1,068億美元。 該行認為,出口增速快於預期,或反映外圍需求出現改善跡象。去年同期的比較基數偏低,也有利於推高數字。日前商務部部長王文濤亦表示,外需下滑壓力很大,今年外貿處於十分嚴峻的形勢。外圍製造業活動前景未明朗,出口新訂單持續減少,內地整體出口表現或仍較為反覆。美、日等國家可能進一步加強對中國的高端晶片限制,同時歐盟亦可能對中國產電動汽車徵收額外關稅,或續對高端技術產品及機電產品出口構成壓力。進口增長率低於出口,或顯示內需有待改善,內地經濟前景仍具挑戰。
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