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一文了解券商於港鐵(00066.HK)公布去年業績後最新目標價及觀點
港鐵公司(00066.HK)公布去年業績後今早股價靠穩,最新報25.2元漲近0.6%。摩根士丹利發表報告表示,港鐵去年每股盈利及每股派息均符合預期,去年核心盈利按年跌40%亦大致符合預期,截至去年12月的淨負債比率由去年6月的22.3%升至26.5%,公司於2024年至2026年資本性支出達880億元,維持較高水平。 港鐵昨(7日)市後公布截至去年業績,營業額569.82億元,按年升19.2%,純利77.84億元,按年跌20.8%;每股盈利1.26元。每股末期息派0.89元,每股全年派息合共每股1.31元,按年持平。期內,物業發展利潤則按年下跌80.1%至20.83億元,代表香港物業發展利潤23.29億元(2022年為115.89億元)。投資物業公允價值計量收益為14.2億元,對上年同期為虧損8.1億元。港鐵指,密切留意市場情況,為公司的物業發展項目制定合適的招標計劃。在未來12個月左右,預期為東涌東站第一期項目重新招標。 公司去年香港車務營運的總收入按年增50.2%至201.31億元,令未計利息、財務開支及稅項和計及每年非定額付款後的虧損減少76.5%至11.11億元。有關業績主要受惠於過境服務及高速鐵路(香港段)恢復營運和本地鐵路服務乘客量回升帶來的正面影響。 【業績後股價靠穩 經常性業務改善】 花旗發表報告表示,港鐵去年核心盈利按年跌40%至63.64億元,低於市場同業原預期70.18億元,主要是發展物業入賬明顯較低,另外公司來自經常性業務的利潤令人鼓舞地增長至42.81億港元,董事會宣布每股末期息為0.89港元,連同首次中期股息0.42港元,全年股息為1.31港元(與去年同期持平)。雖然香港財政預算報告宣布全面撤辣,但香港房屋需求在短期內將持續低迷。就港鐵表示今年內將重新推出東涌東站第一期項目作招標,花旗估計,港鐵從該項目中所獲取的經濟效益可能大大低於預期,認為現時港鐵對土地投標未見積極,維持對港鐵「沽售」評級,將其目標價從26.5元下調至23元。 里昂表示,港鐵去年下半年核心盈利按半年升35%至42億元,較該行預期高17%,每股派末期息0.89元按年持平,隨著乘客量和票價結構的改善,旗下香港業務正在扭轉局面。對購物中心而言,租金重估下降幅度正呈現收窄趨勢,但料完全正常化尚需時日。然而,該行認為港鐵健康的資產負債表(2023年淨負債比率27%),顯示股利削減的風險較低,維持「買入」評級及目標價37元。該行引述港鐵管理層在分析員會議上稱有信心維持漸進式派息政策 ------------------------------------- 下表列出4間券商對港鐵投資評級及目標價: 券商│投資評級│目標價 里昂│買入│37元 摩根士丹利│減持│29元 花旗│沽售│26.5元–>23元 瑞銀│沽售│21.4元 券商│觀點 里昂│去年下半年盈利增長勝預期,資產負債淨值仍穩健 摩根士丹利│去年盈利增長基本符預期,商場租金收入減少 花旗│樓市需求短期內持續低迷,投地活躍度未改善 瑞銀│全年派息比率遜預期,料2024-25年資本支出微增
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