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瑞銀料美國6月始減息 如看好中國可投資MSCI香港指數
阿思達克 03-04 16:32
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室發表報告指,美國經濟的強勁表現對亞洲發達及新興經濟體部分領域提供了支持,特別是北亞地區,例如韓國和臺灣,因貿易動能向好而步入週期性上行的初期階段。此外,報告對中國「兩會」期間可能釋出的政策信號持樂觀態度,認爲若政策超預期,例如更高的財政赤字率和更有力的房地產寬鬆政策,將進一步爲市場帶來支持。 在全球經濟方面,瑞銀認爲,美聯儲會可能於今年6月首次降息25個基點,並預計之後將逐季降息,直至聯邦基金利率的目標區間達到瑞銀估計的3.25%至3.5%長期中性利率爲止。此外,報告建議投資者關注印尼投資級債券,認爲印尼在大選後的主權基本面穩健,或可獲信用信級機構給予正面的信用評級前景。 至於中國市場方面,報告認爲下個月的兩會或再次將經濟增長目標設定在5%左右的。不過,中長期來看,中國股票估值要持續上行,還需政策具有連貫性,並推出解決根本結構性問題的全面計劃。 同時,報告建議投資者如看好中國形勢好轉,可將其精選的香港股票作爲風險較低的投資選擇,尤其看好精選的國有金融機構、國企佔比較高的公用事業以及電信行業,而MSCI香港指數中有超過60%的股票例如金融和房地產類,股息收益率不錯,以及保險和博彩公司等,在經歷了年初以來的大幅 拋售之後,預計整體指數有中雙位數的上行空間,並認爲派息穩健且資產負債表強勁的公司存在投資機會。 瑞銀又特別提到,預計人工智慧(AI)行業或會出現爆炸性增長,預計2022年至2027年間,AI行業的營收將增長15倍,年均複合增長率達72%。這一預期基於AI變現能力的顯着改善和AI相關資本支出的全面增加。
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