《大行報告》瑞銀降港鐵(00066.HK)評級至「沽售」 削目標價至21.4元 派息增長壓力被低估
瑞銀發表報告,預計港鐵(00066.HK)2024至2028年間每年扣除股息後的自由現金流負值為80億元,2022至2025年的每股派息年複合增長率只有0.8%,低於市場預期的2.3%。該行認為問題關鍵在於鐵路項目的資本支出負擔加重,並預計在基本情境下,未來五年鐵路項目的資本支出將達到每年260億元,是2018至2022年間的3倍。
報告指出,在住宅物業疲弱的環境下,港鐵的「鐵路+物業」融資模式可能面臨挑戰,要在項目上獲得足夠的回報存在不確定性。同時對港鐵資產負債表持審慎態度,至2028年,港鐵的淨資產負債率料從22%升至44%。
該行降港鐵去年及今年每股盈測分別33%及56%,以反映發展項目盈利延遲入賬,租金收入較低及利息開支增加。瑞銀認為,雖然過去兩年港鐵股價表現疲弱,但其派息增長壓力被低估,報告認為目前股價仍未反映上述挑戰;而且與香港發展商相比,港鐵的股息相對缺乏吸引力,將評級由「中性」下調至「沽售」。目標價由38.1元大幅下調至21.4元。
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