《大行報告》匯豐研究料上半年樓價跌5% 未來數月成交大反彈
匯豐環球研究發表報告指,就港府放寬印花稅及樓按要求,相信可以支持樓市表現,而房地產投資信託基金(REITs)納入互聯互通機制後,能夠重新評估,在地產發展商中,偏好擁有豐富現金的長實集團(01113.HK)(予「買入」評級及目標價53.1元)及信置(00083.HK)(予「買入」評級及目標價10.3元),亦看好新地(00016.HK)(予「買入」評級及目標價95元)的業務復甦前景。
該行相信政府撤辣及放寬樓按要求,對發展商屬正面訊息,將會改善銷售前景,特別是中高檔的項目,因為之前的辣招打擊了非本地買家及多單位業主的購買需求,不過地產股仍具不利因素,例如利潤率受壓及可能削減派息。相信地產股要待減息周期開始,以及盈利展望下調結束,才會出現明顯的重估。
在未售新盤的數量眾多及樓按環境下,該行並不預期本港住宅樓價有V型反彈,樓價仍然受壓,估計在回穩前,上半年將調整5%,並估計明年回升2%,但未來幾個月成交將會明顯改善。
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