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《大行報告》瑞銀降友邦(01299.HK)目標價至90元 料去年新業務價值按實際匯率增長31.5%
阿思達克 02-26 09:51
瑞銀發表研究報告指,友邦保險(01299.HK)將於3月14日開市前發布2023財年業績,預測按實際匯率(AER)及固定匯率(CER)計算,其新業務價值(VNB)料按年增長31.5%及34%,即去年第四季VNB按年增長28%及26%,較去年首三季增長33%及36%減慢。 瑞銀表示,友邦去年全年中國業務增長強勁,按CER計預料仍可實現約15%至19%的VNB增長,但預期公司會將中國業務的長期投資回報率及風險貼現率預測下調,預計今年全年VNB增幅約13%至17%。 至於香港市場方面,去年第四季錄得按季增長主要由於中國內地訪客(MCV)對VNB的貢獻有所增加,預測去年全年香港VNB可增長超過90%,今年MCV的需求仍將受到中國利率下行的財富分散需求持續存在,以及高才通計劃等因素支持。 瑞銀預測友邦2023年稅後經營溢利按年增幅將趨向平緩,意味去年下半年料按年增長約3%,每股派息料增加5%至1.61元,並將2023及2024年稅後淨利潤預測分別下調7%及4%,2023年內涵價值預測則下調1%,目標價相應從95元下調至90元,評級仍為「買入」。
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