一文了解券商於恆生(00011.HK)公布去年業績後最新目標價及觀點
阿思達克 02-22 11:38
恆生銀行(00011.HK)昨午(21日)公布2023年度業績後昨日股價彈高9.1%，今早(22日)股價升2.2%，現報91.25元。摩根大通指恆生銀行去年業績略優於該行預期，主要受惠於成本控制及效率提升，決定上調對其目標價由102元升至104元，維持「中性」評級。海通國際上調恆生銀行評級至「跑贏大市」，目標價由109.38元升至119.17元，指派息回報較高。
恆生公布去年純利按年增長58%至178.48億元；每股盈利8.97元。除稅前溢利錄201.05億元，按年上升57%。第四次中期息每股3.2元，全年每股派息合共6.5元，較2022年度的每股4.1元增加近59%。恆生去年扣除預期信貸損失變動及其他信貸減值提撥前的營業收入淨額達408.22億元，按年增加19%。淨利息收入增長26%至322.95億元；淨利息收益率擴闊55個基點至2.3%；淨息差為1.89%，按年提升27個基點。淨服務費收入則下跌6%至49.2億元。恆生執行董事兼行政總裁施穎茵表示，內地的商業房地產預期信貸損失已在2022年見頂，預料今年該行的撥備將維持下降趨勢。本地商業房地產貸款組合未有系統性風險，對今年香港貸款前景審慎樂觀。
【業績勝預期 成本控制優】
美銀證券發表報告指出，恆生銀行去年純利按年增長58.1%至178億元，較該行及市場預期超出5%至7%。撥備前利潤按年增長27.6%，亦較該行預測高出5%。全年每股派息按年增長58.5%至6.5元，第四次中期息每股3.2元，去年派息比率按年跌2個百分點至73%。該行將恆生今明兩年預利預測上調6%至7%，目標價由92.3元上調至100元，維持「中性」評級，認為公司今年收入前景更具挑戰，以及撥備具不確定性。
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下表列出8間券商對恆生銀行投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
海通國際│中性->跑贏大市│109.39->119.17元
摩根大通│中性│102元->104元
高盛│沽售│101元->105元
美銀證券│中性│92.3元->100元
富瑞│持有│92元
摩根士丹利│與大市同步│90.5元
瑞銀│中性│86.5元
花旗│中性│84元
券商│觀點
海通國際│派息較高及集團正快速去風險
摩根大通│去年業績略優預期，受惠於有效成本控制
高盛│撥備前利潤優於預期，因淨息差及營運支出理想，但估值已高於同業
美銀證券│去年盈利增長勝預期，今年收入增長具挑戰性
富瑞│去年下半年淨息差強勁，派息比率72%優於預期
摩根士丹利│第四次中期息派3.2元有驚喜，全年派息高於預期
瑞銀│去年下半年淨利潤及撥備開支表現高於預期
花旗│去年下半年淨利潤略勝預期，淨息差表現高於預期
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