春秋航空(601021.SH):整個春運票價是超預期的,票價和客座率也不錯
格隆匯2月21日丨春秋航空(601021.SH)披露2024年春運情況交流會議紀要,整個春運票價是超預期的,票價和客座率也不錯,超過了19年,這也和今年春節假期時間比較長,大家春節出行習慣有所變化有關,往年大家回家過年以後,最多就周邊附近走走,今年由於假期較長,大家可能初二初三就離家出遊了,探親+出行的模式也促進了需求增長。
全年維度,維持之前的判斷,旺季會很強,春運也加強了信心,但是對淡季和平季會相對謹慎一些。考慮今年行業情況與去年的區別,國內航班量沒有分階段恢復的安排,價格也比較市場化,因此全年客座率和航班量的表現會更好一些,但是價格可能會有一定調整,尤其淡季和平季的票價目前比較難做預測,還需要看3月份之後的商務情況。
還有一個前提條件,就是國際航線的恢復速度和力度,如果和預期一致,甚至超預期的話,寬體機會逐步往外投放,那總供給實際可能是不夠的,那麼對國內的票價會有支撐。建議再觀察一段時間,再對全年進行展望。
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