《大行報告》摩通:5年期LPR意外下調25點子 惟不會扭轉內銀今年以來優異表現
摩通發表報告指出,內地5年期以上貸款市場報價利率(LPR)意外下調25點子,預期內銀明年淨息差平均下降3點子。
該行提及,今年至今內銀H股跑贏恆指10個百分點,而內銀A股亦跑贏滬深300指數11個百分點。雖然LPR意外下調對內銀不利,但不會扭轉其今年以來優異表現,因為市場對宏觀增長存在不確定性,因此股息率是內銀表現的關鍵驅動因素,而最新下調5年期LPR應不會影響內銀去年股息,對今年股息影響亦有限。因此,該行重申內銀將於今年上半年繼續跑贏指數的觀點。
在該行覆蓋的內銀中,5年期LPR意外下調對建行(00939.HK)及郵儲銀行(01658.HK)明年淨息差或帶來更多的負面影響,並將導致郵儲銀行的重估評級暫停。至於下一個潛在催化劑是將於下月底披露的季績。
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