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郭思治:大市在低成交下反覆於50天線左近
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨(20日)仍略見反覆,而恆指更曾稍跌穿50天線(約在16,139點左近),恆指昨早市先輕微高開67點至16,222點,其後再進一步升至16,274點方漸受規限,由於買盤保守,加上零碎沽壓再略為湧現,故整個大市卒漸趨反覆,而恆指更一度下跌100點至16,055點,即其時已稍跌穿50天線,惟幸維穩買盤漸現,故大市跌勢得以喘定並略作後抽,只是在買盤薄弱之下,大市未能作較明顯之抽升,恆指最後報收16,247點,較上日升91點,全日總成交金額為769億元。 有一點想再次指出,本月恆指暫是由15,336點升至16,408點,即月內之波幅暫為1,072點,惟在此波幅內,形態上卻框著20天線(約在15,833點左近),10天線(約在15,992點左近)及50天線(約在16,139點左近),故只要大市稍作較明顯之升或跌,技術上便會反覆穿梭於上述三組平均移動線之間,但一日恆指未正式跌穿15,336點之前,小許反覆所帶出之問題並不大,當然,一日恆指仍未正式突破16,408點之前,始終仍只屬反覆欲試頂而已,惟一旦恆指能成功突破16,408點的話,則其時上望目標該為100天線(約在16,795點左近)或更高。 恆指服務公司剛公佈最新之成份比重,由於未有加入或剔走任何股份,故成份股仍維持在82隻,從資料上看到,最重磅之頭八隻股份為:匯控(00005.HK)佔8.92%,騰訊(00700.HK)佔8%,阿里-SW(09988.HK)佔8%,友邦(01299.HK)佔7.17%,建行(00939.HK)佔5.06%,美團-W(03690.HK)佔4.23%,中移(00941.HK)佔4.09%,工行(01398.HK)佔3.02%,從上述資料可見到,單是ATM(騰訊、阿里、美團)已共佔成份比重逾20.23%,即如上述三隻新經濟股仍持續反覆不明,恆指要大幅上升之機會實不大。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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