《即日市評》人行降LPR息率超預期 恆指回升 中海油創新高
受石油股等帶動下,恆指今日回升。歐股隔晚個別發展,美股隔晚因總統日休市,執筆之時,美國10年期債券孳息率處於4.283厘,美匯指數升至104.36,道指期貨最新跌87點或0.22%,納指期貨最新跌0.36%。人行將五年期LPR下調至3.95%降幅大過預期,一年期維持3.45%不變。上證綜指收全日升12點或0.42%收2,922點,深證成指升0.04%,而滬深兩市成交額共7,894億人民幣。
恆指高開66點,早段曾升118點高見16,274點,其後曾倒跌100點一度低見16,055點,午後再度上揚,全日升91點或0.6%,收16,247點;國指升34點或0.6%,收5,519點;恆生科技指數升11點或0.4%,收3,264點。大市全日成交總額769.6億元,滬、深港通南下交易淨流入40.34億及11.85億元人民幣。
科網股走個別,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股價上揚0.9%收72.15元,美團(03690.HK)漲0.9%,騰訊(00700.HK)股價跌0.2%。藥明系有支持,藥明生物(02269.HK)股價升3.7%,藥明康德(02359.HK)彈高7.9%。
【降LPR息率 內銀股造好】
內銀股造好,建行(00939.HK)及工行(01398.HK)股價均上揚1.5%,內房股龍湖(00960.HK)及越秀地產(00123.HK)升3%及2.7%,旭輝(00884.HK)更升7.5%。
摩根士丹利發表報告指,人民銀行將五年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調25點子,減幅是有史以來最大,亦遠超市場預期(下調10點子),一年期LPR保持不變,則略為出乎預期(下調5點子)。今次調整是支持穩定股市的其中部分措施,同時亦旨在支持樓市銷售。該行仍然預期今年餘下時間,公開市場操作(OMO)或中期借貸便利(MLF)利率將下調共20點子,以支持淨息差及LPR進一步溫和調整。大摩指,借鑒2012至2016年的經驗,援救股市的措施,需要在經濟措施支持下才得以成功,相信當局需要推出更多貨幣放寬政策,2024/25年財政刺激規模需要達1萬億美元,並聚焦於推動消費。
【市寬呈改善 中海油攀升】
港股今日市寬改善,主板股票的升跌比率為23比18(上日16為比26),恆指成份股今日60隻股份上升,20隻股份下跌,升跌比率為73比24(上日為22比78);大市今日錄沽空138.1億元,佔可沽空股份成交額661.52億元的20.877%(上日18.16%)。
比亞迪(01211.HK)再打價格戰,秦PLUS最低價不到8萬人幣,全日股價跌2.3%。小鵬(09868.HK)及蔚來(09866.HK)跌3.7%及1.9%,長汽(02333.HK)跌2.6%。
中資石油股有支持,中海油(00883.HK)股價攀升3.3%收15.58元,中石油(00857.HK)及中石化(00386.HK)各揚1.4%及1.9%。瑞銀發表中國油氣及化工股每周報告,指布蘭特期油上周平均價格按周升3.3%至每桶82.5美元,主要受地緣政治因素推動,包括中東緊張局勢升溫及俄烏衝突持續。在地緣政治因素提振油價情況下,認為三桶油將會受惠。(wl/u)
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