《大行報告》花旗:人行降五年期LPR息率超出預期 對降息影響評估謹慎 對恢復新購房者信心還須觀察
花旗發表報告指出,人行今日(20日)宣布不對稱降息,一年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)維持不變,而與抵押貸款利率掛鉤的五年期LPR下調25點子,降幅超出預期。該行認為,強勁的市場預期、房地產持續低迷、通縮期間實際利率上升,加上市場對淨息差的憂慮,推動今日人行不對稱降息。
該行對人行降息的影響評估謹慎,認為未償還抵押貸款利率每年重新定價一次,今日的大幅降息是否有助恢復新購房者信心仍有待觀察。該行預期今年一年期中期借貸便利(MLF)利率將下調20點子,可能意味著未來LPR有機會進一步下調。
此外,該行認為內地的貨幣政策固然重要,但今年恢復增長及信心的關鍵在於財政操作。而即將召開的全國人大會議將是政策轉向的真正考驗。
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