瑞銀料中國信貸增速年底保持約9.5%穩健水平 人行最快3月兩會召開前後減息
中國1月新增社融6.5萬億,強於市場預期的5.6萬億,再創歷史新高。瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,人行在去年12月和今年1月累計向政策性銀行投放了5,000億元PSL,預計人行可能在年內再額外新增3,000至5,000億元PSL額度,從而進一步為「三大工程」提供信貸支援。今年政府債券發行量可能保持強勁水準,其發行節奏可能在3月全國人大批准新一年財政預算後明顯提速。整體而言,信貸增速可能在今年底保持在9.5%左右的穩健水平。
為緩解通縮壓力以及支撐經濟增長,瑞銀預計央行將進一步放鬆貨幣政策,包括再減息10至20個基點(MLF和回購利率)、再降準25至50個基點,並結合使用一些其他流動性工具,包括進一步增加PSL投放等。最快的減息時點可能出現在3月兩會召開前後。
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