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瑞銀料內地今年經濟增長可達5%潛在目標
阿思達克 02-15 11:27
瑞銀財富管理亞太區投資總監辦公室發表報告指出,在基準情景下,認爲內地適度且必要的寬鬆力度加強,應足以使今年經濟增長達到5%左右的潛在目標。但考慮到近期政策加碼的積極跡象,也不排除非常規刺激政策驅動上行情景出現的可能性。 該行認爲,今年內地財政政策將發揮主要作用,預計2024年財政赤字佔GDP的比率將設定在3.5%左右,國債發行規模也將擴大,地方債額度應該與去年類似——考慮到中國政府歷來不樂見總體赤字率高於3%,以上財政目標應該是不錯的結果。此外,去年底增發的1萬億元人民幣(下同)特別國債中的大部分將用於支持今年的財政支出,另有報道指相關部門已在考慮是否再次增發1萬億元國債。總體而言,這意味着今年財政擴張力度應該比去年明顯加大。 短期內,該行建議偏防禦的配置,重點關注盈利增長韌性強、能見度較高及股息收益率穩健的股票,在政策落實並促進增長企穩前,該類股票的表現應該更具韌性,包括部分國有銀行、公用事業以及電信領域的精選公司。該行還將利用便宜的估值來佈局中國新增長動能的中長期受益者,尤其是能把握中國消費趨勢變化、國內科技生態系統以及人工智能(AI)等大趨勢的公司,以及在海外的業務強勁並不斷擴大市佔率的企業。 報告認爲,價值主張(value proposition)的零售趨勢、海外擴張和科技供應鏈將是「中國經濟3.0」新常態下的三大投資核心驅動因素。投資者可關注受益於這些因素的板塊,包括:汽車、消費、醫療保健、科技和網遊。 此外,該行認爲由於中國增長復甦動能依然偏弱,再加上政策寬鬆預期,預計美元兌人民幣將在7至7.3的區間內整理,今年下半年或在7.15附近徘徊。
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