許繹彬:農曆年假將至 澳門股被看高一線
耀才證券執行董事兼行政總裁許繹彬表示,市場普遍揣測,2024年國內首個任務必定是穩定經濟;事因在今年的首個月,國家已連番出招救市,分別降準0.5%,目的是有效地增強市場上的流動性資金;再者,在本周初時宣布內地再出招穩定股市,繼去年10月調整借貨沽機制後,中證監再進一步對此加強監管,由上月29日起全面暫停限售股出借。
同時,中證監再對融券比例進行限制,將於3月18日起實施轉融券市場的股票申報由實時可用調整為次日可用。國內連番出招,可見內地政府對刺激資本市場來挽救經濟的決心。在相繼出招下,內地股市走勢雖然未見有很大突破,但看來已喘定下來,未見再有急挫,暫呈現橫行看似待變的格局,相信投資者在現階段靜待及觀察播種後的成效。
此外,本周出現另一焦點,這事件已經糾纏了接近三年,令整個國內樓市以及相關的行業,連帶債市及資本市場,就好像火燒連船般被牽連,甚至整體經濟體都被拖垮,情況比疫情肆虐是更為嚴重;而能夠做出這樣震撼全球的企業,相信無人不曉,就是被喻為大得不能倒下的中國房地產商中國恆大(03333.HK),終於在本周宣布正式清盤收場。
市場對是次巨龍清盤,對未來樓市產生兩個看法,一:認為是次塵埃落定的判決,國家會對臨危邊緣的樓市出招來挽回投資者的信心;這個看法確實有消息確認,在恆大被判決清盤後,內地官媒隨即報道官方「出招」救內房,實施房企「白名單」,房企只需滿足五大條件,包括項目須處於施工狀態,有與融資額基本匹配的抵押物等,便視為合資格並可被列入這白名單,預期首批合資格會包括出險房企、央國企、民企等多家房企。而針對合資格「白名單」房企的貸款,日前已在廣西南寧市落地;儘管部份房企尚未就新的白名單政策接到銀行通知,但已經有房企率先行動,積極為項目融資爭取支持。
二:另一看法則認為,很多內房企業會相繼步恆大的後塵,多隻曾爆內房債務危機的內房股,股價連番急挫,並創下新低。究竟箇中誰是誰非,相信留待實質的數據,才有答案。
另外,筆者認為港股上周在國內連番出招後,曾維持在15,000點邊緣,並作出三連升,一度升到超越16,200點以上;當時投資者均普遍認為,港股可在農曆新年前,扭轉劣勢,吐氣揚眉,有機會重上17,000或18,000點的水平。但原來港股弱勢始終一直未改,反彈只屬回光返照。在本周未有好消息配合,再加上恆大正式清盤的不利消息後,港股承期指結算日,淡友再度發功,將恆指打回原形;在萬不經意下,再度跌穿10天線(約15,600點),前路再度踏入迷茫。
筆者表示,儘管道指不斷創下新高,港股不跟相信已是常態,但原來港股現階段比納指還要低,可謂令投資者一次又一次失望,而投資者一定要接受此事實。港股未來走勢會受制於內地股市的變動,現階段唯有寄望2月5日在國內正式降準後,市場的流動資金會增加,可令國內經濟從谷底回升,亦因而令股市氣氛回暖,帶動港股走勢有所改善及擺脫彈散的情況。農曆長假將至,相信到澳門的旅客亦會相對急升,不妨跟進澳門股的走勢,相信是短炒之選。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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