薛俊昇:私人消費及旅遊業復甦續帶動增長 料本港全年經濟增長2.8%
恆生銀行(00011.HK)經濟研究部主管兼首席經濟師薛俊昇表示,今年本港經濟預期將進一步復甦,現時預測全年經濟增長2.8%,相信稍後時間美國聯儲局減息,可為下半年本港經濟帶來額外支持。該行目前預計美聯儲今年全年將減息3至4次,每次25個基點。
他指出,去年第四季本地生產總值數據,顯示私人消費及旅遊業復甦繼續帶動本港經濟增長,全年計消費錄得高單位數增長,主要反映旅遊業的服務輸入及輸出增速超過20%。
薛俊昇預期,消費及旅遊業繼續成為2024年本港經濟增長的主要動力,但外圍環境不明朗依然帶來下行風險,雖然近月本港進出口回復正增長,但當中部分原因與較低的比較基數有關,同時由於市場普遍預期今年主要經濟體的增長低於去年,認為本港外貿前景挑戰仍然不少。
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