中銀香港預計美聯儲最快5月開始減息
中銀香港財富策略及分析處主管張詩琪預計,雖然美聯儲本週仍將維持利率不變,並預計第一季仍將維持高利率不變,最快或在5月開始減息,預期全年最少減息1厘。另外,美國經濟有望逐漸企穩,實現「軟著陸」。在經濟溫和增長下,預期將為股市帶來支持。隨著美債利率趨勢性下行,中資美元債及美國國債均處於最佳投資階段。
張詩琪指,由於美元加息週期結束,外部壓力緩解,中國A股估值有望提升。同時,中國經濟轉型邁向高質量發展,短期經濟繼續復甦,為股市奠定了良好的經濟基礎。張詩琪認為,A股經過連續兩年的調整,不論是與其他股市橫向比較,或與過去自身歷史縱向比較,目前股債性價比從多角度反映A股估值處於週期性和歷史性的低位,因此預期2024年將出現投資機會。
至於美股方面,美國經濟「軟著陸」的樂觀預期及美聯儲「鷹轉鴿」拐點的到來,將支持標普 500指數短期表現。然而,在首次減息開啟後,經濟增長動力能否帶動市場樂觀情緒,從而繼續支持美股表現將成為關鍵。因此,投資者應逢高鎖定利潤,並等候調整時點擇機增持。
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