巴曙松:中國高儲蓄及低消費形勢或持續較長時間
港交所(00388.HK)董事總經理兼首席經濟學家巴曙松表示,在中國城鎮化進入中後期,加上房地產出現較大調整,導致居民、企業及金融機構正各自修復資產負債表。
他續指,居民超額儲蓄的說法很可能是錯的,因在資產負債表受損的情況下,超額儲蓄是居民自發的一個修復資產負債表的過程,以應對槓桿率過高,預計高儲蓄、低消費、減少借貸以及增加還款的情況將會持續較長時間,有可能要至少5年的時間資產負債表才能修復至一個大致可接受的水平。
至於中美緊張局勢方面,巴曙松稱,若中美脫鉤,中國就需要擴大市場來吸收產能,單靠擴大內需亦不能完全吸收。他認為,中國需要進一步尋找新的市場,否則就要就加大內部競爭及升級,變成一個新的品牌,中美脫鉤將造成非常深遠的影響,亦會對中國帶來間接的通縮影響。
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