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大行評級|中國銀河國際:首次覆蓋匯通達網絡(9878.HK)並予增持評級 目標價37.6港元
中國銀河國際首次覆蓋匯通達並予增持評級,目標價為37.6港元。匯通達是中國下沉零售市場B2B業務的龍頭企業,具有龐大的供應鏈優勢,並通過一站式SaaS解決方案幫助鄉鎮夫妻店滿足當地鄉鎮客户的購物需求。下沉市場增長潛力巨大:中國的下沉市場(基本上是除了49個高能級城市之外的所有地區)是巨大的,截至2022年,佔全國土地面積的95%,占人口總數的71%。根據國家統計局的數據,在2017-22年,下沉市場展現極大的消費彈性,農村人均可支配收入年均複合增長率為8.4%,人均消費支出年均複合增長率為8.7%,均超過城市地區(年均複合增長率分別為6.2%和4.5%)。據行業研究機構 Leadleo Research,匯通達2022年銷售額達804億元人民幣,2018-22年的年均複合增長率為28%,在下沉B2B零售市場的市場份額達到1.28%,僅次於阿里零售通1.36%的份額。銀河國際分析師相信,匯通達具有巨大的增長潛力主要得益於其完善的供應鏈基礎設施和一站式SaaS服務網絡以及政策端的穩健支持。適配下沉市場的成熟完善的商業模式:歷經多年發展,匯通達在下沉零售市場形成以下優勢:1)完善的上游供應商網絡,並與數千家供應商合作,包括蘋果、戴爾、聯想、合眾汽車、奧克斯等知名品牌。B2F模式,以需定採,滿足客户在下沉市場的實際需求。2019- 2022年,消費電子與交通出行的銷售年均複合增長率分別為47%和29%,2023年上半年分別同比增長24%和4%,並分別貢獻了總收入的53%和9%;2)完善的倉儲物流服務,匯通達擁有350多個前置倉,10000多輛可向會員店提供即時送貨服務的車輛;3)匯通達的SaaS平台為村鎮夫妻店店提供一站式全方位服務,幫助解決供應鏈能力薄弱、客户獲取渠道有限、單一銷售渠道和匱乏數字化解決方案等問題。2023年上半年,匯通達旗下已有217,592家會員店,其中121,209家(佔68%)覆蓋SaaS+訂閲。公司目標在2023年至2025財年期間,活躍客户羣每年將擴大3萬人。隨着會員店數量的不斷增加,銀河國際分析師預計銷售額年均複合增長率為11%,淨利潤年均複合增長率為33%。
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