《大行報告》中銀國際降長汽(02333.HK)目標價至8.5元 上季核心盈利遜預期
中銀國際發表報告指,根據長汽(02333.HK)業績快報,上季總收入按季增長8.8%,銷量按季增長6.3%,但扣非淨利潤按季下降71.4%至8.75億元人民幣,主要是由於年末較高的計提費用。如果剔除23億元人民幣年終獎的影響,核心單車盈利按季基本持平在8,500元以上人民幣,但考慮到海外銷量的按季提升和結構的改善,該行認為其國內市場的利潤率表現不理想。
報告指,上季和去年全年,長汽的俄羅斯銷量佔海外總體銷量比重超過50%和44%,因此俄羅斯市場在長城海外銷量增長和公司整體盈利能力提升上扮演更重要的角色。短期內公司在俄羅斯市場仍有上升空間,但考慮到歷史上俄羅斯市場需求的不穩定,因此增長的持續性需要保持關注。
中金上調對長汽2024至2025年銷量預測至133萬和135萬台,以反映更高海外銷量預測。但由於長城在主流細分市場缺乏具有競爭力的新能源產品,該行認為其在國內市場仍面臨份額下降的壓力。考慮到盈利水平高的出口銷量佔比持續提升和補貼等非經常性項目,將2024及2025年淨利潤預測,分別上調10至11%至65億及66億元人民幣,但下調目標價至8.5元,維持「持有」評級。
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