《大行報告》瑞銀:內險股短期應受降準提振 惟減息週期對中期再投資回報構成挑戰
瑞銀發表報告指,人民銀行預告將於2月5日下調存款準備金率50點子,釋放1萬億元人民幣流動性,若果股市氣氛受到提振,內險股將會受惠,包括投資收益增加,以及估值提升。截至去年6月,該行挑選的內險股中,有10%至18%投資資金透過直接股票投資及互惠基金,投放於上市股票資產,大部分以公平值入賬。另一方面,在市場流動性改善下,儲蓄保險產品的回報較其他固定收益投資吸引,亦將推動保險銷售。
不過該行指,中期而言,減息周期對再投資回報構成挑戰,利率下調壓力將會打擊內險板塊的前景,削弱內含價值假設。
該行認為,宏觀經濟環境及整體市場氣氛,繼續是內險股的主要推動力,對內險股維持「防禦性進攻」(offensive yet defensive)策略,進攻是藉市場順風尋找機會,當中中國平安(02318.HK)被投資者視為與中國宏觀經濟高度相關,而中國太保(02601.HK)則以基本因素取勝。防守方面,在預防宏觀風險下,較偏好中國財險(02328.HK),因產險業務周期性影響相對較低。
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