《大行報告》建銀國際降蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至21.2元 消費復甦較預期慢
建銀國際發表研究報告指,預計蒙牛(02319.HK)的收入增長率將從去年上半年的7%放緩至下半年的1%。去年下半年中國原料奶價格下跌10%,因此該行預計期內集團毛利率將改善0.7個百分點至34.6%。產品和渠道的銷售、一般行政費用(SG&A)費用增加可能導致營運利潤率略為改善0.1個百分點至7.1%。此外,該行認為去年上半年原料奶持續供過於求,加上價格下跌可能導致奶粉業務減值損失及上游合資企業分享利潤下降,從而降低集團的盈利。該行預料集團去年下半年利潤增33%至20.68億元人民幣。
該行預計,在銷售增長的推動下,蒙牛今年收入將增長5%,當中,預計液態奶收入增4%,又料隨著市場整合,奶粉領域將增3%。由於集團持續擴大市場份額,並考慮到有利的原材料成本趨勢,料集團2024財年毛利率將按年增0.3個百分點至37%,足以抵銷較高的銷售和營銷費用。該行又預期2024財年的營運利潤率將擴張0.2個百分點至7.3%。
該行下調蒙牛2023及2024財年的盈利預測14%,目標價由31.4元下調至21.2元,維持「跑贏大市」評級。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.