研報掘金丨中金:中遠海能4Q23業績低於預期,看好油運市場週期向上
中金公司研報指出,2023年中遠海能(600026.SH)預計實現歸母淨利潤31億元-39億元,同比去年預計增長約112.77%-167.67%,對應4Q23歸母淨利潤為-6.14億元到+1.86億元,業績低於我們預期。長期看,該行認為行業週期向上,運價中樞有望逐步抬升。認為未來2-3年油運市場仍保持低供給增速(2024年1月VLCC在手訂單佔比為2.56%),奠定行業週期向上基礎。根據此前測算,若紅海事件持續至全年,2024年供需差為-6.5ppt。1Q24至今VLCC運價均值為48,744美元/天,較4Q23環比略下降5%,但作為傳統淡季仍好於歷史水平。認為行業供需差有望催化運價中樞逐年提升,從而增厚公司盈利。該行給予A/H股均維持跑贏行業評級和目標價不變,A股目標價為18.2 元/股,H股目標價為10.75 港元/股。
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