《大行報告》中金料內房新房推盤及成交在春節前或低位運行 基本面弱壓制投資者風險偏好
中金發表報告指出,內地新房方面,上周54城新房銷售面積按周增長6%,低基數下按年基本持平,較去年12月周均仍降近四成。二手房方面,上周15城二手房銷售面積按周走平,按年亦在低基數下增近九成。土地市場方面,上周300城土地成交建面和金額按年分別下降約五成和三成,溢價率維持在低個位數,景氣度未見回升。
往前看,該行認為內地新房推盤和成交在節前或維持低位運行,二手房熱度料好過新房,建議繼續關注價格邊際變化(近期二手房價按月跌幅略有收窄)及供需兩端政策落地節奏及效果。
該行稱,在當前基本面疲弱壓制投資者風偏背景下,自下而上角度:資產質量和盈利能力較穩健的優質紅利股股息收益率具備吸引力,建議重點關注華潤置地(01109.HK)、恆隆地產(00101.HK)及龍湖(00960.HK),今年股息率8.2%、8.6%及14.4%;隨「三大工程」政策的出台與落地,相關概念股或繼續跑出相對收益。若近期出台的供、需端政策在中期維度上逐步形成合力推動基本面實際改善,兼具估值優勢的均好型房企也將有所受益,如華潤置地、中海外(00688.HK)、越秀(00123.HK)及建發(01908.HK)。
此外,該行指穩健型物企估值刷新歷史新低,相關標的去年整體有望兌現20%至30%的利潤增長、現金流情況良好,2024至2025年利潤增速或仍維持雙位數水平,但年初以來其股價並未反映估值切換影響、反而在較低估值水平之下進一步重挫,主要反映房地產基本面不振之下投資人風險偏好的下行。個股端該行推薦中海物業(02669.HK)、萬物雲(02602.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)和保利物業(06049.HK),以及代建龍頭綠城管理控股(09979.HK)。
中金對內房及物管股最新評級及目標價表列如下:
股份|評級|目標價(港元)
內房股
華潤置地(01109.HK)|跑贏行業|43.5元
恆隆地產(00101.HK)|跑贏行業|16.21元
龍湖(00960.HK)|跑贏行業|28.7元
中海外(00688.HK)|跑贏行業|23.39元
越秀(00123.HK)|跑贏行業|7.88元
建發(01908.HK)|跑贏行業|27.86元
物管股
中海物業(02669.HK)|跑贏行業|7.7元
萬物雲(02602.HK)|跑贏行業|32.4元
華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)|跑贏行業|39元
保利物業(06049.HK)|跑贏行業|36.7元
綠城管理控股(09979.HK)|跑贏行業|7.4元
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