《大行報告》瑞銀料內地貨幣政策行動有限 估計未來會有更溫和的政策支持
瑞銀發表報告指,去年第四季中國經濟增長放緩,但在低基數下,按年仍有5.2%增長,2023年全年經濟增長亦有5.2%。去年12月的經濟數據反映樓市活動未見底,銷售及動工量按月均下跌,零售銷售在低基數效應減退下亦降溫,不過製造及基建投資重拾增長動力,出口增速亦加快。
該行預期,當局將會推出溫和的政策支持,計及可能新發的政府國債,估計財政赤字率3.5%至3.8%,據報政府亦考慮發行1萬億元人民幣超長期特別國債。該行認為貨幣政策空間有限,MLF利率或下調10至20點子、存款準備金率或下調25至50點子,亦可能透過流動性安排支持財政擴張,人行1月保持MLF利率不變,令市場失望。
另外,該行預期會有更多樓市放寬措施出台,包括對發展商的信貸支持,以及透過抵押補充貸款(PSL)提供低成本融資,以消減樓市庫存。該行預計內地未來會有更溫和的政策支持。
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