《大行報告》美銀證券降農夫山泉(09633.HK)目標價至43元 評級「中性」
美銀證券發表報告,預計農夫山泉(09633.HK)去年銷售額和稅後淨利潤按年分別增長26%和28%。報告指,長期以來,農夫山泉的股價一直跑贏大市,目前股價相當於預測2024年市盈率約34倍,該行認為茶業務利好因素已反映在股價,獲估值重評的機會有限,因為與其他大型消費類公司相比,農夫山泉的估值差距過大。
報告稱,自上市以來農夫山泉的高估值倍數一直惹市場熱議,報告提及,倘以利淡角度分析,非茶業務佔總銷售約70%,茶業務急升不足以支持集團層面增長,估值向下重評是不可避免。而通縮宏觀環境或不足以支持市場向無糖茶的快速結構性轉向,因實際上是消費升級。
該行上調農夫山泉2023和2024年每股盈測分別7%和8%,以反映茶葉業務快速增長,但鑒於增長前景趨於正常,且高基數下盈利能力上升空間有限,目標價由50元下調14%至43元,重申「中性」評級。
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