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《大行報告》匯豐研究料上半年樓價跌半成 偏好長實集團(01113.HK)及信置(00083.HK)具防守性
匯豐環球研究發表報告指,對本港樓市前景維持審慎態度。該行指,過去三個月,發展商的預計收益平均下調7%,認為業績季期間可能會出現悲觀的銷售指引,並帶來負面影響。目前政府正在密切關注房地產市場,惟料短期內放鬆政策的可能性較低。該行相信,負面的財富效應和利率上升的環境可能會拖累市場情緒,並對實體市場造成壓力。 該行表示,雖然政府於去年月放寬了部分政策,但樓價尚未出現任何明顯的改善跡象,去年樓價累跌6.1%。該行預計,樓價將面臨壓力,並在今年上半年下跌5%後穩定下來。雖然近期成交量略為回升,但仍處於較低水平。基於人才計劃帶來的租賃需求及市場傾向租樓而非買樓,料分化趨勢或會持續。 匯豐環球研究看好有豐富現金資源的香港發展商,例如長實集團(01113.HK)(予「買入」評級及目標價53.1元)及信置(00083.HK)(予「買入」評級及目標價10.3元),相信它們較具防守性。而新世界發展(00017.HK)和恆地(00012.HK)的盈利前景可能較弱,且與同業相比,其負債率高於平均水平。
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