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瑞銀汪濤上調中國今年經濟增長預測至4.6%
阿思達克 01-18 14:22
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,考慮到內地去年第四季國內生產總值(GDP)按年增長5.2%,略高過該行預測的5%,且統計局對前幾個季度GDP按季增長進行修正,該行對今年GDP增長預測由原來的4.4%,上調至4.6%。 她認為,未來幾個月,內地房地產活動和房地產市場逐漸企穩,應有助提振居民信心。加上經濟活動和勞動力市場持續復甦,消費應可繼續兌現疫情後的溫和修復,財政支持將更為顯性化,但預計基建增速不會提速。此外,儘管美國經濟增長可能放緩,但隨著全球科技周期的回升,預計出口增速也將溫和改善。 此外,汪濤預計內地未來政策支持有望加碼,但力度較為溫和,預計今年政府將財政赤字率設定為3.5%至3.8%(包括今年可能發行的新一批特別國債),提高地方政府專項債券新增限額,並再發行新一批地方政府特殊再融資債券。貨幣政策放鬆力度可能比較有限,房地產政策也可能進一步加碼,包括對開發商的信貸支持,以及利用部分抵押補充貸款(PSL)支持的低成本資金購買存量住房、消化庫存等等。該行認為,未來幾個月PSL資金的規模和使用方法應更為清晰。
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