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《大行報告》大摩:內地上季錄1998年以來最長及最深通縮 市場憧減息10個基點 需積極財政寬鬆
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,中國公布去年12月核心全國居民消費價格(CPI)及生產者物價指數(PPI)持續收縮,基本上符合市場期望,推動因素是食品價格反彈(以豬肉為首)和油價基數較低。該行指,中國2023年第四季通脹率-1.3%(對比2023年第二至三季的年通脹率為-1.4%),創下歷史最長以及自1998年以來最嚴重的通貨緊縮。該行料中國2024年首季通脹率將錄-1%。 該行指,雖然市場正在關注人行可能快將降息10個基點,但該行相信果斷的積極財政寬鬆和再平衡政策是市場消費市場所需要。
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