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《大行報告》富瑞降中銀(02388.HK)目標價至24元 料上季涉內地商業房產撥備按季顯著增
中銀香港(02388.HK)今日(12日)股價偏軟一度下滑逾3%,半日收報19.34元跌2.5%。富瑞發表報告表示,在HIBOR的推動下,料中銀香港去年第四季淨利息收入可能按季小幅增長,但整體淨息差可能因資金流向繼續承壓,並料其去年第四季手續費收入可能因季節性和疲軟的市場情緒而受到抑制。該行亦關注中銀來自中國商業房地產(CRE)去年第四季撥備將可能較上季顯著增加,這些負面事態發展解釋其近期股價疲軟的原因。 該行表示,中銀資產質素將為焦點,目前預計去年第四季度撥備將達到34億元(對比2023年第三季15.11億元),因為其將更多中國商業地產貸款轉移至不良貸款並提高其撥備覆蓋。該行指中銀香港旗下中國商業房地產風險敞口大部分為離岸銀團,其回收率低於資產支持雙邊貸款和境內貸款,料上季內地商業房產撥備或顯著增加,會令其復甦延遲。 富瑞料中銀香港2023年每股派息1.66元(此前預測為1.8元),估計派息比率維持53%水平,料股息回報約8.3厘。該行表示,基於中銀潛在進行較多撥備,下調對其2023年至2025年每股盈利預測介乎3%至6%,該行料中銀公布去年業績後股價會受壓。該行維持對中銀「買入」投資評級,下調對其目標價由27元降至24元。
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