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信銀國際:美國經濟或於第三季衰退 聯儲局次季起減息
中信銀行(國際)首席經濟師卓亮表示,2024年美國經濟表現較2023年料顯著減弱,經濟衰退有機會在第三季出現。他預計將出現個別季度GDP收縮及個別月度非農職位減少的現象。 他續預期,聯儲局將由第二季起減息,全年減息幅度料達150個基點,年未時聯邦基金利率目標上限跌至4厘。縮表規模未來將逐步減少,直至計劃終止。 中信銀行(國際)個人及商務銀行業務投資主管張浩恩表示,今年全球有多個大選,雖然以歷史數據來看,過去大選年均以升市為多,但實質回報參差。市場仍要留意各項不穩定因素,包括貨幣政策、經濟環境、個別公司情況等。
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